TIA Forecasts Soft Fall Travel Season

Americans are expected to take 279.4 million person-trips during the 2005 fall season (September, October, November), down 1.1 percent from last fall, according to the Travel Industry Association of America's (TIA) seasonal forecast. A person-trip is one person on one trip traveling 50 miles or more from home, one way.

"The combination of soaring gas prices, Hurricane Katrina, a weak job outlook and shaky consumer confidence set the tone for a relatively weak fall travel season," remarked Dr. Suzanne Cook, TIA's senior vice president of research. "However, despite the small dip in fall travel volume, it remains at one of its highest points. The fact that we were able to sustain the record level of travel seen last fall is good news for the industry."

While leisure travel volume is expected to decline 1.6 percent this fall compared to fall 2004, it is still very strong and remains at one of its highest points. Americans plan on taking slightly more than 225 million leisure person-trips in fall 2005.

Business travel volume will fare slightly better in fall 2005 and is indicative of continuing recovery in this segment. TIA is forecasting a slight growth of 1 percent to 43.8 million business person-trips this fall compared to fall 2004. However, business travel volume still remains far below the high seen in fall 2000 of 47.9 million business person-trips.

NOTE: The results of TIA's fall 2005 forecast are based on TIA's seasonal travel forecasting model, which takes into account historic trends in seasonal travel, current travel industry performance indicators, and current U.S. economic conditions.